So, There's an Active Volcano in NK and It's Gonna Erupt...Maybe

[uledy.livejournal.com]

Japanese scientists claim there is a 99 percent chance that Mt. Baekdu on the border between North Korea and China will erupt in the next 20 years due to the impact of the massive earthquake in Japan in March last year. But experts here said the timing of an eruption is hard to predict, though Mt. Baekdu remains an active volcano.

Japanese media on Sunday reported Hiromitsu Taniguchi, a volcano expert at Tohoku University, has concluded there is a 68 percent chance of Mt. Baekdu erupting by 2019 and a 99 percent chance of an eruption by 2032.

Taniguchi based his inference on the historical relationship in timing between earthquakes in Japan and eruptions of Mt. Baekdu. Historical documents from Korea and China show that Mt. Baekdu erupted at least six times between the 14th and 20th centuries, Taniguchi said, and every time it followed an earthquake in Japan.

Mt. Baekdu erupted in 1373, 1597, 1702, 1898, 1903 and 1925.

"A Chinese nuclear power plant being constructed 100 km northwest of Mt. Baekdu is highly likely to be impacted by an eruption," Taniguchi said. "If an eruption occurs, it will affect not only North Korea and China, but Japan, Russia and other surrounding countries as well."

Korean experts are skeptical of Taniguchi's forecast. They say it is true that there is magma activity underneath the mountain but no scientific reason to predict a 99 percent chance of eruption.

"It strains interpretation of the data to predict the timing of an eruption based on historical statistics of Japanese earthquakes and volcanic activity on Mt. Baekdu," said Cho Bong-kon at Chonbuk National University. And Yoon Sung-hyo at Pusan National University, the first Korean expert to warn of the threat of an eruption in 2010, "It is scientifically risky to predict the timing of an eruption, so we must take the forecast with a pinch of salt."

Source: Chosun Ilbo

don't these people watch movies? always, always listen to the crazy scientist who predicts armageddon. or get Pierce Brosnan...

Comments

[askbask.livejournal.com]

So it's not actually in SK as the title tells us, but in NK.

[uledy.livejournal.com]

You're right! Sorry for the typo!

[devjacaiora.livejournal.com]

Of course SK gonna said it's not true XD lol

They can't look stupid saying that this japanese guy is right and oups sorry they didn't saw the volcano gonna erupt again lol

[uledy.livejournal.com]

lmao changed!

[4minutesluts.livejournal.com]

Historical documents from Korea and China show that Mt. Baekdu erupted at least six times between the 14th and 20th centuries, Taniguchi said, and every time it followed an earthquake in Japan.

1) was the timespan between said earthquakes and eruptions even close to the same?
2) 6 data points and you're making a 99% confidence prediction? lol ok

also kind of funny that it seems like they're using their model to fit dates to confidence intervals, which just means if you have a bad estimate everyone is going to forget it before it comes true

[the-erotomanic.livejournal.com]

the place looks beautiful.

[kanbinayume.livejournal.com]

it really does. I came in to say that lol

[ashyvt.livejournal.com]

it's not in sk according to the article?

[uledy.livejournal.com]

changed :)

[k0dama.livejournal.com]

But bekdusan is in north Korea. It's nowhere near South Korea.
That's like saying everyone in NYC should carry an umbrella because it's going to rain in Montreal, Canada.

[uledy.livejournal.com]

mistake. fixed.

http://omonatheydidnt.livejournal.com/9356403.html#comments#comments

next.

[bear100.livejournal.com]

Breathtaking picture tbh

[joong-ki.livejournal.com]

Don't even remind me of that. I hate earthquake drills with a passion especially after 14 something years of going under desks with a bunch of gum under them. Not a pleasant experience.

[obviousgirl.livejournal.com]

You forgot about the super volcano residing under the neighboring states.

[obviousgirl.livejournal.com]

Turns out Yellostone is more than a park, it's a super volcano, that's showing signs of activity.

[shwinlewin.livejournal.com]

Honestly, my biggest concern here is the nuclear plant. I wish they'll learn from what happened in Japan and start precaution even if its only 68% chance for 2019 and the 99% chance of an eruption by 2032.

[uledy.livejournal.com]

After forming the Fukushima investigative panel, I believe Japan plans on sharing their findings and impart some advice on preventive measures governments can take to assure this won't happen again. I forget the details and I can't find that article anymore :/

[mjspice.livejournal.com]

Oh snap! :O