question time: is the idol success rate in korea low? is the industry oversaturated? some say "yes".

[byeolbyeol.livejournal.com]

436 diff idol groups have debuted in the past 10 years

Only ~45 of them have become a success, ~10% success ratehttps://t.co/zyWaK98CvR

— mes #TeamPinky (@OH_mes) July 22, 2017

To be fair: the translation above isn't exactly in line with what the article is about. TL;DR: It discusses, like said, how 436+ idol groups have debuted since 2007 - so, in the last decade. Of all these groups there are only a few that have come out of each year that had seen proper "success". Under the cut is a list of groups that the article highlight by year:

FT Island, Girls' Generation, KARA, Wonder Girls, 2AM, 2PM, Davichi, SHINee, U-KISS, 2NE1, 4Minute, After School, B2ST, f(x), MBLAQ, Secret, Rainbow, T-ARA, CNBLUE, Girl's Day, INFINITE, miss A, Nine Muses, SISTAR, Teen Top, ZE:A, A Pink, B1A4, Block B, Boyfriend, Dal Shabet, AOA, Crayon Pop, EXID, EXO, Hello Venus, SPICA, BTS, GOT7, Mamamoo, Red Velvet, G-Friend, IKON, TWICE.

With every year they mention other groups that debuted - not all, but some, to highlight just how many we've gotten since 2007. The writer doesn't mention what their criteria for "success" is, but if going by both the older and more recent groups listed I'd assume it's something like ..., with older groups: groups that have either maintained their popularity (even if they're not trending) throughout the years and who are fairly well known by the public with individual members who have created a name for themselves as well -, or who gained recognition for a specific reason - like ZE:A with their hoard of famous actor members of Crayon Pop with "Bar Bar Bar". For the younger groups: groups that have either began to gain public recognition or that do well digitally? It doesn't seem to take things into account like groups with large international fandoms that are still building up a reputation in Korea / that sell well physically but don't do as well digitally, etc. There's no mention of any groups that debuted last year or this year and that may be due to tentative popularity - like how a group can have a smash hit digitally and then fade into obscurity with their next release.

source(s): @oh_mes (via chosun - naver)

i figured it'd be interesting to post this here and maybe have a discussion about, like ..., how oversaturated the idol industry has become in the last five years - and how there's been more groups debuting lately than ever despite the fact that public interest in newer idol groups has waned - unless they're formed from a reality show or come from a popular company. thoughts? opinions?

Comments

[goshipgurl.livejournal.com]

the market has been oversaturated since 2010/2011. thats when the hallyu wave fully took off in the west and companies just popped out group after group to get a tiny piece of the pie. before you only had the big companies but now there are so many small agencies that dont really have an idea of the entertainment industry but they just push out their artists, hoping that they make it big. but that's not how it works, you don't release a song and hope for the best. you need money and connections to promote your artist and get them on tv shows. exid or gfriend (groups that got famous after a viral video) are an exception.

lou perlman (ugh, i know) once said that he won't stop making boygroups as long as god makes little girls, and that's true. there will always be a fanbase for boy- and girlgroups, they will always sell, but with more and more groups out there it'll be hard to hit it big because you have to stand out from the rest, you have to convince your fans that you are worth the money.

idk if that makes any sense.

[byeolbyeol.livejournal.com]

that's pretty much how i feel about it too. i started listening to k-pop around the middle of 2011 - so, right before groups started to debut one after another. i remember they still debuted at a pretty spaced out pace even then though so i was surprised when they rapidly began to come in especially after the end of 2012.

but you're making total sense. as long as there's people to debut and people who're either lured into the promise of fame and fortune by the industry or who want to try and become famous ... there's going to be idols. like the idol culture has existed for decades now. it's been around since the '70s in japan. and there's been groups that resemble the format of idol groups in both promotion and fanbase in the western world for years now. new kids on the block, new edition, the jackson 5 - and you can even look at the old gimmicky groups that were put together through popular television shows like the brady bunch and partridge family as "idol" groups. some people even consider abba to be an old school type of idol group so it's never gonna go away. plus, like you said: there's always going to be a fanbase for these groups, no matter what.

[kristinl356.livejournal.com]

This feels like the first time I've heard ZE:A referred to as a success. Poor pumpkins.

[lightframes.livejournal.com]

*crying*

[adenar.livejournal.com]

Yeah, their definition of 'success' seems to be a bit all over the place - I mean, I love Nine Muses for example but I wouldn't call them a success. But then I don't know Star Empire's monetary concerns, maybe Namyu really do turn them a profit somehow.

[byeolbyeol.livejournal.com]

i figure that's why they've stuck around for so long too. even if they're not a top group they're still acknowledge fairly often (just like hello venus and dal shabet are) and they're obviously bringing in some sort of cash. so, i guess that makes them a success technically? like if more than one member can successfully latch on to solo activities (like kyungri with god of music / her endorsements and sojin with that one fake... idol group show) then it's better than nothing.

[callherblondie.livejournal.com]

Just like Hollywood, kpop's idol industry feeds off young people's hopes and dreams (and in many cases, their families' wallets to get their so-called careers started). I actually think most kids would -- statistically speaking -- have a better chance of getting into SKY and getting a pretty good stable office job, than they would have of becoming a successful idol. Half of the groups named in that list are already kaput and several are well on their way.

[carra-mia.livejournal.com]

When there were less groups there were better&less known ones ofc, but I feel like everybody was closer to the same level etc somehow?
Now with the number of groups getting bigger and bigger it's like the top and the bottom are sooooooo far apart, having nothing in common practically, it lacks that "unity" from the past, it's hard to consider kpop as a whole, it got kinda fragmentated? Idk if it's good or bad, but surely different, like you won't ever see all your faves in one place anymore or super big acts do not promote in the usual way - skip music shows or do 2 stages, does weird ass releases' schedule or debut songs at their concerts.

It's not even about number of groups for me, but that's too, but number of members - yall do not need 10+ kids in a team truly... It shows that most of those companies should not debut anybody bc their whole strategy is to throw shit and see what sticks - that's what most things are so bland, they have to go "wide" and safe to God forbid "alienate" somebody and it all ends up tasteless and carbon copy of each other.

[byeolbyeol.livejournal.com]

when you compare how the idol industry was in pre-2010 (and even a little bit into 2011) with how it is now it's really evident how different everything is. and that's not even an "[insert era here] was the golden age of k-pop" comment. it's just a general observation. it just seems like a time that won't ever be repeatable within the industry there: the combo of there only being a smaller handful of active groups promoting with the public being genuinely interested in what idols are doing.

but yeah. it's wild to me how many companies are debuting groups with 10+ members anymore. groups with less members stand out so much more anymore.

[adenar.livejournal.com]

Also obviously I can't read Korean so I don't know if the article mentions it but the trend of 'ensemble' groups (formed of multiple people from different companies/different walks of life/different idol groups) suddenly becoming popular is really interesting to me. Also how it's not just an idol thing, as shown by Sister's Slam Dunk; people liked seeing the Unnies come together even if there's only two or three actual performers in each iteration.

[byeolbyeol.livejournal.com]

it does seem like ensemble groups are growing in popularity. i'm also curious if the rise in kard's popularity is going to encourage more companies to try at debuting co-ed groups? or at least try for more co-ed subunits (because troublemaker was really popular as well).

[cxxl.livejournal.com]

There is such a low success rate. I remember watching a music show (via stream) for one of my faves comebacks and like I didn't know who a portion of them groups were (there was a coed group but it wasn't the one y'all takes about). I think it is natural for an industry to have failures but 10% rate is...wow. It makes sense since the entirety of their business model hinges on young teens and varying niche markets with thin attachments to a unifying audience.
Is it over saturated? Yeah but at the end of the day the regular (using this term loosely) amount of groups are getting the success. Big three, smaller still established companies and some outliers.
There needs to be a change but until it starts hurting big hitter pockets (SM, JYPE, YGE, etc.) that's likely not going to happen. As long as they can still find success with the current model there will be no need to expand or alter it.

[citypolaroids.livejournal.com]

their definition of "success" seems to be all over the place... some of those groups are more well-known for being unknown than anything, and they left out some other staple groups from the last few years. as long as there's a trend to be capitalized upon and people willing to pay to pretend that they have a chance with pretty 'idols' who are packaged to be palatable to their tastes, i don't think kpop will ever run out of groups to debut.

[dynamite-state.livejournal.com]

The industry's definitely oversaturated in general, but also by replicas of one or two concepts (both for boys and girls). One would assume that with so much competition around, companies would try to have their groups stand out, yet...

The good thing with this situation is that variety is bound to come. And if the domestic market is deemed unprofitable eventually, slowly some companies will start appealing to me haha. Look at KARD, having a full worldwide tour with just one mini album out (not even that when they first started touring). They're barely charting domestically but are making a profit because of their international marketing (esp. to South America). I see that trend continuing, and, assuming they're still ambitious with the concept, I'm specifically betting on SM to capitalize on it with new NCT units around the world.

[donaldjdrumpf.livejournal.com]

Ita with this comment. Like there's sooo many boy groups out there and yet a lot of them debut with like the samn damn 'sexy' or 'hard hip hop' style and the choreo and production on the songs often sound similar. Do they think they're gonna stand out? Or giving girl groups another 'cute' concept with not very challenging choreography?

Ia re: the international market too. Kard sold less than 600 albums on Hanteo in its first two days, but can get multi million YT views in a day when they release a new MV and can chart top 60 on US iTunes. It's only natural that when domestic competition becomes too fierce, some agencies/acts will place a greater emphasis on exporting their product to other markets.

[shinychopstick.livejournal.com]

the article kinda just lists some names of groups you've probably at least heard of (versus nugus) so they're not really evaluating success, for anyone wondering why some groups are included

While I do think it's saturated, I also think people have a very black & white way of judging success. Not every group can be EXO/BTS levels of popularity just like not everyone can be a CEO or president. A lot of groups are doing just fine getting performance gigs, building respectable followings, promoting abroad, etc. People are too quick to label groups as flops for not being the ones at the top when they're doing just fine in their own niche in the idol food pyramid of sorts. It's just unfortunate when companies invest too much without enough return or don't compensate their artists fairly for their work. I feel really bad for groups from obv inept and corrupt small companies that take advantage of people's dreams and youth and don't do shit to promote them

[boxcuttergirl.livejournal.com]

+1111111

[sra-interesante.livejournal.com]

according to soompi on 2014 kpop industry reached their highest point with over 100 new groups debuting ..... on 2015 they also debuted around 100 new groups

its a fact kpop has been oversaturated for years
and actually there isnt that much variety on groups. They just keep repeating the same formula, trends and style that bigger companies stablish for the industry

but that's fine hallyu is a niche market so as long as they keep doing what people expect from them, they should be fine
i've been into kpop for a couples of years now you notice there isnt that much new people joining fandoms but lots of the same people just changing older groups for new ones .... even here older omonians can confirm, now more than ever new idols are disposable

[maagdenpalm.livejournal.com]

Isn't this better than the U.S. entertainment success rate (when you account for size of course)? I remember coming across that like three percent of the artist that debut do well and enter the main stream. However, the history of Korean entertainment does differ from the U.S., so it's perhaps not appropriate to compare the two .

[existingisfunny.livejournal.com]

"Isn't this better than the U.S. entertainment success rate (when you account for size of course)?"

i don't know but literally every music show here is Beyonce, Lady Gaga, Katy Perry, Rihanna, like we've been surviving off the same 10 people since 2009 or something and I'm so sick of it (except Beyonce)

[existingisfunny.livejournal.com]

maybe it's because of age and i already had my heavy band phase that even though i'm super into kpop and do stan some groups, i've never been particularly heavily involved in keeping up with them to the millisecond like through twitter updates or watching endless sub videos of them

but kpop idols themselves as so stale, the personalities are saturated. i mean, it perfectly aligns with those self-made labels of the 4d kid, the mom of the group, the dad of the group, the one that just wants to sleep and eat or whatever like every group has the same types of archetypes. i feel like i rarely "meet" anyone that's new and refreshing or themselves?

i know they're sometimes trained to act a certain way. i'm fine w pop music but i sorely need some personal authenticity when it comes to personalities. it's not necessarily the amount of groups coming out that makes me groan but just knowing it's 5-10 more people specifically acting certain ways to be liked because that's their job. if that makes sense?

[ironicmustache.livejournal.com]

kpop idols themselves as so stale, the personalities are saturated.
YES. i can't watch more than like 1 show/interview a day now (when i used to just binge videos all the time) because i can start making the jokes/punchlines before they do -.-

[krissasaur]

I got into K-pop around when DBSK debuted, and I still remember... I think 2008-2009? And being like wow so many groups are debuting I can't keep up!! And then 2010 happened and.... I was extremely overwhelmed. hahaha. Sometimes I long for simpler times, but at the same time, the more the merrier.

I feel bad for the ones who can't make it though, and I have also had to guard my heart a bit more. I feel like I could safely invest in a nugu companies group in 2008, where now? Too much heartache is involved. I now usually try to wait a year or two before touching unknown groups. (Tho I got into VICTON recently, but at least they are in the same company as APINK so... hopefully???)

[epona.livejournal.com]

i feel like the trend of huge groups lately is because companies stacked up on trainees and are now realizing the idol group bubble is going to burst so they're just debuting all the kids they've invested in at once lol

[maagdenpalm.livejournal.com]

Oh my gosh I thought I was the only one who noticed this! There are so many groups with so many members that it's hard to keep track of everyone. I wonder why this is a thing now and I think your theory is sound haha

[normanikordei.livejournal.com]

i guess i never realized the scope of the industry until i watched pd101 season 1 for the first time and saw the names of so many companies i had never even heard of. and its sad because most of those girls (and guys from season 2) won't make a living as an idol, some won't even debut.

its even tough for some top idol groups to find their footing digitally and unless you're exo, bts, or twice (and now seventeen, got7?) you're probably not selling a ton of physicals bc your fan base isn't that big.

and then comes touring where the idols actually get to see a lot more of that money. but again without the fan base you can't tour lol. but now it seems reality competition shows are the new wave what with i.o.i. and wanna one's success (twice too but they're also jyp) and a lot of idols would rather take the risks of doing that (bad editing, or just plain getting eliminated) bc it seems to guarantee a level of pre-built success.

but that's quickly going to get oversaturated as well. i don't watch idol school but it seems to be less popular than pd101 already.

[byeolbyeol.livejournal.com]

it's interesting that you bring up physical sales. people really bank a lot on them anymore but, the truth of the matter is ... they do bring companies in a fair share of money. the only groups that can sell over 150k are the ones you mentioned plus snsd, shinee, super junior, tvxq and got7. most others kind of ... struggle in that area.

[lemonadetea.livejournal.com]

It is oversaturated, but at the same time I think we get some real gems from the smaller companies, like BTS.

Honestly (I know this is ridiculous talking about pop), I think the big companies all have a problem with getting stuck in a rut with the sorts of groups they produce and just distilling everything down to the most popular things but missing the critical elements that make a group interesting. I'm not sure YG actually knows how to reproduce what they had with BigBang and 2ne1; BlackPink is cute but sort of like 2ne1 with everything that made them eye catching sucked out. Meanwhile, so much of what SM produces is stale to the point that I don't enjoy it, and I'm not convinced they or JYP are capable of managing all the artists they've got going now. (And I'm super salty that f(x) seems to be going the way of CSJH.)

[existingisfunny.livejournal.com]

the way yg and jyp handle their groups, you'd think it was dumb luck their entertainment labels ever got as big as they did. jyp can only focus on one thing at once, he hot potatoes got7 and twice and yg thinks management means a group or artist releasing 1 or 2 things every year before disappearing for what reasons?

sm seemed to be focused on solo pilot for a while, which was good for cash flow i guess. i hope snsd's comeback is everything it's supposed to be but sm has been feeling to formulaic and seem to have the opposite problem of yg which is their comebacks are overlapping each other so much that no one breathes for a week. i think nct 127, boa, exo, and red velvet had things in the last month

i don't understand why they're treating f(x) like this and like replacing them (not musically, but just in priority) with red velvet? where's the gain?

[giriboy.livejournal.com]

isn't a better question asking whether ppl think the industry isn't over-saturated? for one, it's pop music (an industry composed mostly of old guys calling, and taking, shots on kid's naivety because... right, who doesn't want to be famous?) and i don't know a single person who would disagree. it's no shocker that any pop market is over-saturated and, in kpop, especially when you think about the big(ger) companies and them putting stock, literally, into smaller companies with one or two groups (i.e., sm holding share with woolim)

fandoms carry groups (most likely—again: over-saturated—even in the case of larger groups like exo/twice/bts), if it doesn't work in korea groups get sent on tour or to japan (over-saturated, again, bigger industry) or both. and water is wet, yeah?

[mjspice.livejournal.com]

Gotta agree with this. There's so many groups now that it's hard to keep track of them. They need to chill a bit.

[mc1a.livejournal.com]

I totally agree. There are too many groups debuting but it is interesting to see what strategies companies adopt in order to draw attention to their artists (see KARD, Loona).

[boxcuttergirl.livejournal.com]

i'm curious, what strategies did kard use besides being a coed group? from what i saw they just kinda got big among ifans out of nowhere.

[maagdenpalm.livejournal.com]

i'm not quite sure what's the problem. Should people stop making music? As long as people can sing, dance, write and produce beats this is always going to be the case and it's not something to discuss unless you're an economist or something and you're looking at chats and records.

[10135.livejournal.com]

I don't think any of this is bad? Plenty of people love music, and of course people want to be famous. I think it's only bad of you think of it from the aspect that if you make music you have to win awards and get millions of views on YouTube and of course that's an aspiration to some, but it doesn't make it mandatory and certainly shouldn't stop people from making music.

[kyokomurasaki.livejournal.com]

I think part of the issue is companies (especially smaller companies) debuting groups that lbr don't stack up to the big dogs in terms of talent, budget, etc. and they're all just carbon copies of existing formulas. It's one thing if you're trying to push different concepts but when it gets to the point where they're putting out yet another generically cutesy girl group with a $5 music video, it's like why bother. There are tons of people out there already doing that and doing it better. I get that most companies like to stick to what they know will sell, but you have to have some sort of it factor to differentiate your group or they're just going to be overshadowed by the 20 other groups doing the exact same thing. Then again kpop fans will pretty much eat up any old shit so what do i know

[rainstormraider.livejournal.com]

With the success of shows such as Produce 101 its pretty clear that the market hasn't reached saturation point yet. If the industry can continue to churn out idols that can shill products and sell an ideal then for sure, the market will never truly saturate.

You have groups like Big Bang and SNSD entering their 10th year and either seemingly on the edge of disbanding or being mired in scandals, and new groups like BlackPink coming in to fill the whole that 2NE1 left.

Just look at the Korean charts, 10 years ago you had maybe 3 songs being released in a week and now you have about 10-15 songs and yet whatever impact is not being made digitally in Korea you still have die-hard fanbases developing rapidly for rookies internationally and reflecting it on Spotify, iTunes and Billboard.

Idol groups will only continue to be created. The market will only reach saturation point when you have girl groups and boy bands dominating the entire worldwide music market and fortunately we are not there yet.