South Koreans 'will be extinct by 2750'

[suxaholic.livejournal.com]

South Koreans will be 'extinct' by 2750 if nothing is done to halt the nation's falling fertility rate, according to a study by The National Assembly Research Service in Seoul.

The fertility rate declined to a new low of 1.19 children per woman in 2013, the study showed, well below the fertility rate required to sustain South Korea's current population of 50 million people, the Chosun Ilbo reported.

In a simulation, the NARS study suggests that the population will shrink to 40 million in 2056 and 10 million in 2136. The last South Korean, the report indicates, will die in 2750, making it the first national group in the world to become extinct.

The simulation is a worst-case scenario and does not consider possible changes in immigration policy, for example.

The study, carried out at the request of Yang Seung-jo, a member of the opposition New Politics Alliance for Democracy, underlines the challenges facing a number of nations in the Asia-Pacific region.

Japan, Taiwan, Singapore and increasingly China are all experiencing growing financial pressures caused by rising healthcare costs and pension payments for an elderly population.

The problem is particularly serious in South Korea, where more than 38 per cent of the population is predicted to be of retirement age by 2050, according to the National Statistics Office. The equivalent figure in Japan is an estimated 39.6 per cent by 2050.

According to a 2012 study conducted by Tohoku University, Japan will go extinct in about one thousand years, with the last Japanese child born in 3011.

David Coleman, a population expert at Oxford University, has previously warned that South Korea's fertility rate is so low that it threatens the existence of the nation.

The NARS study suggests that the southern Korean port city of Busan is most at risk, largely because of a sharp decline in the number of young and middle-aged residents, and that the last person will be born in the city in 2413.

source thedailytelegraph

Comments

[premonitioner.livejournal.com]

what kind of scaremongering science/journalism is this, making it sound like the korean peninsula will just have no people left. i get that this is worst case scenario but geez...

[4minutesluts.livejournal.com]

it's an incredibly dumb thing to say, especially when population projections look like this on a hundred year timescale

[waterpulse.livejournal.com]

If they want women to want kids, maybe they (society, government, etc) should help foster an environment where women would want to have kids. I just read an article a few days ago about mothers with young children being banned from coffee shops because their children cause disruptions and all the comments were going in on the young mothers for being irresponsible, no wonder no one wants to become a part of such a "privileged" class.

[torontok.livejournal.com]

not toention mothers are discriminated against in the workforce.If you have a succesful career and youll have to put it on holf for two years at least then why would you?

[torontok.livejournal.com]

I will gladly voulunteer my ovaries to carry on Kim Minseok's bloodline.
Pakistani's arent going extinct any time soon, so I have eggs to spare.

[waves-of-light.livejournal.com]

i call shotgun on top!

oh hai choi seunghyun...let my womb be thy vessel

[seroquels.livejournal.com]

Can't wait for the knet comments on this (rme).

[rosetta16.livejournal.com]

this journalist didnt take into account all those girls that want to have a korean hubby and korean babies
dont worry it wont go extinct, it will only have tons of cute mix babies/people

[suxaholic.livejournal.com]

they want pure koreans

[metafictionally]

maybe if they want to foster an environment that encourages people to have children, Korea should stop punishing single and working mothers and selling their babies to the adoption industry

[alleybetwixt.livejournal.com]

2750?

Seriously?

We'll be lucky if humans haven't completely wiped themselves out by then. Like... by 2750, South Korea might not exist anymore. Lol. What a ridiculous article.

Fertility rates don't matter anyway. Not long-term. They'll all average out at a sustainable rate eventually unless some other catastrophe. Economic concerns are short-term. The answer is not to pop out a bunch more babies. The answer is to change the system and make it sustainable with a smaller population.

[921227.livejournal.com]

/We'll be lucky if humans haven't completely wiped themselves out by then./

There's always zombies I guess

[921227.livejournal.com]

700 years? Wow
But isn't that probably a good speculation for a lot of developed nations? I feel like this article could apply to European and other East Asian countries too

[digitalqueen.livejournal.com]

we all will be.

[shanny-w.livejournal.com]

iawtc

[donutism.livejournal.com]

I can understand why a lot of Asian girls done want kids, based on how the culture in Asia is. :/ have to work, clean house, look after kids, parent in laws while the guy sit on his ass when he gets home. Plus the increased cost in living. Having kids just isn't practical anymore.

[in-noctem.livejournal.com]

Tbh this is my biggest fear. I really want kids but the thought of marrying a guy who's been brought up to think it's ok if he doesn't help out (aka pretty much every Asian household ever) and that it's the woman's duty to care for the kids scares me :|

[gray-fairy.livejournal.com]

They say similar shit about my country and other European nations too.
I don't even know if humans in general are gonna exist by that time tbh, and if they did...I wonder how live would be, like the technology and stuff o_o.

[yakuniku-8.livejournal.com]

yeah let's be honest, a lot of European countries still think mothers are better at home. I'm pretty sure the reason why France had those birth rates during 10 years is because social services

[tempestdance.livejournal.com]

i'd be surprised if ebola or some other supervirus hasn't wiped out humanity by then.

[imangos.livejournal.com]

Super virus? I'm thinking stupidity. Pretty sure humanity will have done itself in before the wee little viruses get us.

[missingmisnomer.livejournal.com]

yeah excuse me if i don't worry about this right this second

[atopworld.livejournal.com]

Considering that year is not relevant to anyone since I'm sure the earth will have imploded by then....I don't really care...lol.

BUT, let's be honest I'll gladly help foster a few blood lines. And I don't even want kids, that's how strong the thirst is.

[waves-of-light.livejournal.com]

I love your thirst.

[mangotae.livejournal.com]

Oppas, don't worry, I'm ready to continue on your bloodlines. Specifically, Oh Sehun's bloodline.

[jayene25.livejournal.com]

lol, that title legitimately scared the shit out of me!

"Wha?!?! WHY?!?!?! oh...."

[mjspice.livejournal.com]

Lol Japan is in more of danger of having a population decline than SK right now. So much reaching with this article.

[imangos.livejournal.com]

Your icon is giving me life right now. I would gladly stand there and fan this man until the end of time.

[yakuniku-8.livejournal.com]

none of my Korean girl friends want children because they want a career. and I would feel the same. how can you ask someone who worked so hard to go at uni and find a good job to give up everything in order to be a housemaid? increase social services, build more kindergarden and give families money so that they can hire a babysitter and continue working. some women dream of being housewives, but for the others they shouldn't have to choose between work and family.

[lainmyownworld.livejournal.com]

bring the sexy back korea

[yakuniku-8.livejournal.com]

it makes me think of this Danish advert where they encouraged to go on trips because apparently you make more babies on holidays lol http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vrO3TfJc9Qw

[benihime99.livejournal.com]

We'll be lucky if the human race makes it to 2300...
Most ""developed"" country have low fertility rate

[gathyou.livejournal.com]

It makes me think about the 1870-1900 debate in France, when demography was declining. The politics were blaming a lot of factors obviously, but they were also making things really concrete whith "LOOK AT THE PRUSSIANS THEY HAVE MANY BABIES THEY'LL LAST LONGER THAN US"
I really don't understand why they had to compare with Japan like that. And the whole study is a mess. What about war ? Viruses ? So much can happen in 70 years. Maybe South Korea won't even exist anymore, lol. So what's the point ?
Maybe they should focus on how they can help mothers (especially single mothers) with social improvements, and be more welcoming to immigration.

[tempestdance.livejournal.com]

meh it's chosun ilbo they come up with shit articles all the time and extremely pro-government -> pro-Japan.

[bunica1990.livejournal.com]

Well.... a lot of things can happen in 700 years, so I don't see the point of this "analysis".

[senshicalico.livejournal.com]

One thing I rarely see brought up is that more and more women now have the rights/freedoms to just acknowledge if they don't want children at all, and then have power over that. (On the flipside there will always be women who do, so yeah.) But until as recently as a couple of generations ago, children were an inevitablility for most women whether they wanted them or not.

And I can safely say idgaf what's going on 700 years from now. We probably won't even be on this planet anymore if we're still around.

[justkyhdding.livejournal.com]

Oh please, there'll still be ethnically korean people they just won't be 100% korean

[chimpansee.livejournal.com]

"The simulation is a worst-case scenario and does not consider possible changes in immigration policy, for example."

So.. it's mostly useless.